Lessons from the Craigavon By-Election

Ulster Unionists won this seat with a vote of 64% on a turnout of just under 24%. By by-election standards, and considering the poll was in mid-January after a protracted period of bad weather, the turnout was reasonable.

The TUV got 19%. The DUP did not stand.

Jo-Anne Dobson is a local resident, well known and well regarded in the area. Also well known in the area is that she and her family have for many years been very supportive ‘Trimble Unionists’.

I campaigned every day with her, and David campaigned every day he was available, including the Mourneview and grey estates in Lurgan, both traditionally ‘hard’ areas, where our previous experience had been that we were frequently given a hard time on the doorsteps. In the past, these estates, particularly the grey estate, were by and large areas of significant DUP support. Our reception on the doors in this area was very good - the DUP vote is collapsing.

The TUV vote in the European election was 13.5%. At 19% Allister will be satisfied with the outcome.

But our vote at 64% is higher than we have had for many years in any election. The warmth of the personal reception for David and me indicates that the electorate now can acknowledge that the UUP did a better job than the DUP are now doing – and are coming back to us.

Campaigning in Craigavon Council by-election

After spending the last few days canvassing our old stomping ground of Lurgan in support of Jo-Anne Dobson running for Council in the by-election due on 13 January, it is clear that the mood of the electorate has changed.

The last time I canvassed here was 2005, perhaps the low point for the UUP over the last number of years, and while most people were polite on the doorstep, they were not welcoming. It was interesting that we were not then met with the venom we had received in earlier, successful, campaigns from DUP supporters.

In the European election earlier this year, I canvassed widely around Lisburn. The single biggest issue on the doorstep was MPs’ expenses, but overall people were mostly welcoming and responded positively to the link up with the Conservatives.

This time I feel there is a greater change in our favour. A good many people expressed their delight at seeing David on their doorstep again. Expenses still get a mention, but it is not as raw an issue as earlier this year. Some people raised genuine council issues, e.g. swimming pools, but quite a number greeted us with ‘At least you are not the DUP’.

There remains a less than clear understanding of the implications of the UUP/Conservative link, but all comments I received about it are wholly favourable.

Our canvassing team has been very upbeat, turning up in substantial numbers, despite treacherous conditions underfoot.

Turn-out will be very low, as always in a by-election, but particularly if the snow remains until polling day, as weather forecasters are predicting. I am confident we will repeat the success of the Dromore by-election. This will be a great morale booster to lead us in to our next election campaign.